Gold breaks $1300 - will it hold this time?

IrishGuyIrishGuy Posts: 135 Bronze ✭✭✭
Gold breaks $1300 - will it hold this time?
What is your expectation for next Gold Top $1900, lower, higher ?

Comments

  • CampeadorCampeador Posts: 204 Bronze ✭✭✭
    I think that will dance around a bit, but seems to keep creeping up.

    All I can say that will pass $2,000 Is not about if, is about when. My take is that will be on September it will start to climb sharply.
  • rbgoldrbgold Posts: 1 Tin ✭
    So far so good!! After a few hours Gold is still holding steady way above 1300...at the mo it's 1310 and holding. It's broken the long term resistance of 1300 on the back of a lot of tailwind....hurricane Harvey, the ballooning US debt and the looming lifting of the debt ceiling, North Korea, more people waking up to the equity and student loan bubbles including (SLABS) and the growing realisation that the economic "recovery" is a lie. The US has a large debt to repay!! They can do it by raising taxes, by austerity, but their best method is to "inflate their debt away". And as we all know inflation can be very supportive for Gold! Could there be a QE4 on the Fed cards!!??
  • GMONEY1GMONEY1 Posts: 415 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    imho... the nominal price will be strongly influenced by futures and options written in the short-term.

    if lots of puts were written** banks, market makers, and CBs will move the price higher; if lots of calls were written then the price will move lower.
    volatility in SLV and GLD has been relatively low until recently, so it's also possible that they were buyers of out of the money calls or puts as well (i.e. bc the options were cheap). They can only pick up pennies in front of a steam roller for so long, so the major caveat imho is .....this scheme works... until it doesn't. The fact remains, there are hundreds of paper contracts for each ounce of metal.... which is a major problem, especially in the volatile geopolitical and financial environment in which we currently live.

    so... I am expecting a big move on the paper price... but I do not know which way... and the assumption is that they are able to keep the scheme going. As such, I actually bought to open some protective puts today in the event of a false breakout. I have also added to my physical pm positions recently on the platform because again I think the fiat and paper market structure is a major issue in the long-run.

    **by "written", I mean for example they accepted the (marginal) premium to write the contract on the front end... which is different than "buying to open"
  • IrishGuyIrishGuy Posts: 135 Bronze ✭✭✭
    edited August 2017
    Thanks @GMONEY1 @Campeador @rbgold

    He is Peter Schiff's comments on it from his podcast.he does not give a value but he is bullish!

    $1,300 Was a Coiled Spring Beneath the Market
    We've been flirting with that $1300 level all year; I've been talking about all the resistance that was up there and every time the price of gold got near $1300 it was met with a tremendous amounts of selling, there was a lot of supply.  But as I have been saying on this podcast, the demand was building. It was a coiled spring beneath the market. The channel was narrowing.  The distance between the $1300 resistance and the support kept getting narrower and narrower.  I thought it was only a matter of time before we exhausted that supply and broke through that psychological $1300 level.
    The Rally Held Firm All Day
    Gold is up about $18-19 on the day; we closed at about $1310.  Finally, I think, there were people who were worried it wouldn't hold that level, people were thinking that we would sell off so we wouldn't quite get a close above $1300, we'd just get a trade above $1300. But the rally held firm all day long.  We actually closed on the highs of the day. In fact, as I am recording this, the price of gold is taking another jump.  Maybe it is the missile North Korea fired that went through Japanese airspace.  We're tacking on another  $10-11; we're now trading above $13.20.
    The Dollar Is Now a Risk Asset
    The dollar continued its weakness.  It is one of the reasons that gold continues to be strong. The dollar index made new lows today, down around 92.20 [91.79 as I post this], and looking at the action so far in the early evening. The dollar is not benefitting at all from this flight to quality. We're seeing a big rise in the Japanese Yen, a big rise in the Swiss franc.  Those are the go-to currencies.  The dollar is now a risk asset. People don't buy the dollar when they're worried, they sell the dollar when they're worried. Even the Chinese Yuan - new high for the year.
    Gold Now Going Up in Terms of Everything
    Of course gold, now, is not only rising in terms of dollars, but finally rising in terms of everything. Gold is going up in yen terms, it's going up in Swiss franc terms, even though those currencies are rising as well.  This is a key factor, and I think now that we have cleared out that resistance, there are a lot of people who thought there is no upside in gold.  Well they're about to find out just how much upside there is
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