Stock/share price - good news Fri numbers?

paddy10tellyspaddy10tellys Posts: 231 Bronze ✭✭✭
XAU-T has fallen 3C$ since mid-Dec!!! Why? What do you think, people?

Shows how much I know. I was convinced it was going to go the other way ...

Comments

  • powslayerpowslayer Posts: 79 Bronze ✭✭✭
    Im at a loss as well. Thought it was up up and away... seems like management has to much on their plate and cant meet timelines they set out. Im long so Ill just wait some more.
  • GrandpaBrianGrandpaBrian Posts: 677 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23
    The price of any stock on any given day reflects the constant battle between fear and greed. Should a company still be in its early years, price swings can be amplified greatly. From under $3 to over $7 and now back to under $5 all in less than 12 months - a wild ride. I remind myself that there are professional short traders out there who love to exploit the fear of small investors. They are like sharks and when they smell blood in the water, they stike and move on. So I ask myself, are the fundamentals for Goldmoney still solidly in place? How is gold doing? Is the balance sheet still strong? Is management still committed?

    Next Friday we will all have the benefit of the quarterly report and the management discussion of the state of the business.
    I can wait until then. I remain greedy on the stock price but then again I have always viewed this as a five year or longer investment.
  • paddy10tellyspaddy10tellys Posts: 231 Bronze ✭✭✭
    @GrandpaBrian @powslayer Yep. I'm holding. Hopefully, people will comment on the forthcoming numbers when they come ...
  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    edited January 25
    Everyone that bought and held since October is now at a serious loss. Not cool. Precious metal prices (and demand) are way up so...

    Some - hopefully proven wrong - theories:

    > A new stock offering is about to be done way below the December price
    > Some large position - expiring stock warrants - 'had to be exercised'
    > The cost of the new physical branch(es) is to be of hard impact on the balance sheet going forward
    > The cost of new hires will be significant on the balance sheet
    > The cost of the China venture is more than believed/stated
    > The cost of the NYSE listing is more than believed/stated
    > Some big bitcoin-crypto related transactions resulted in loses for the Co.... and someone with insider info acted.
    > Someone hacked and took some cryptos stored at Co..... and someone with insider info acted.
    > Some lawsuit on some transaction.... and someone with insider info acted.

    Again, I don't know what's the problem but the collapse of the stock is hard to ignore. At least the trend is apparently going to reverse soon (doji) and I just added more XAUMF. Really important ER/discussion coming up to clarify for sure.

    In Gold We Trust.



  • theroostertherooster Posts: 10 Tin ✭
    Based on overall market ignorance between Goldmoney and crypto , I do wonder if all the recent bad news on crypto has hampered enthusiasm for digital currency overall ? The market is green.
  • GrandpaBrianGrandpaBrian Posts: 677 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    I think @tamayok that you should be very careful suggesting that "someone with insider info" offers an explanation for the recent price decline. While you may not intend it, that can come across as a shot at the Board and management. This Board of Directors is composed of very senior professionals who take pride in the Company's record of meeting all public company regulations.

    There is always a quiet period before the release of any financials. Next week we will be brought up to date and any rumours can be put to rest. Until then, don't worry, be happy.
  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    The stock has been effectively cut in half in a months time frame. Only if shares had been granted to me out of thin air I would just sit and relax without questioning what has happened. Any way this is looked at, it is ugly as ugly can be. Goldmoney is basically a bank; when a bank stock collapses 50%, you ask questions. I can see how this could end up triggering a classic 'run on the bank'. This concept, even more so than a traditional bank is 100% based on confidence. How can anyone remain confident after this fiasco?
  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    Yesterday's and today's stock movements suggest to me that there is short-covering going on between 3.50 and 3.70 (USD). That is about 10 cents above the stated 'DEAL' offering done late last year at 4.30 CAD for roughly 7 million shares. Perhaps not a coincidence.

    Currently the daily chart reflects an RSI of about 24%. It's the first time I've seen a stock anywhere near that level unless the company was going bankrupt. Anything below 50% is technically oversold.

    ... and yes, I am angry. Very upset after being sort of a preacher to friends and family.
  • Lone_StarrLone_Starr Posts: 72 Bronze ✭✭✭
    @therooster I think in part you're correct. As the crypto and bitcoin hype faded so did the stock price. You also have the fact that the price (USD - XAUMF) was trading around and below $2 for a long time. By December people had doubled and tripled their money in a short time period and probably have started taking profits.

    You can see a lot of the good and bad at gurufocus - https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/XAUMF

    -----------------------------
    In my opinion:

    The biggest strength is the product.
    This company has Very Low - No Debt (that's really rare these days).
    The guys running the company know their product inside and out.
    The holding platform has great potential to offer more.

    The biggest unknown is the company's investment and focus in the crypto space. In the last qtr release, Roy said they would be investing heavily in that space.

    The biggest weakness for the company is its customer service. I believe they are working on this and eventually it will be the Gold Standard. With low margins this is probably the best investment they can do. Goldmoney relies heavily on repeat customers and word of mouth to grow. That only works if there is great customer service.

    There is great potential here.

    ---------------------------------

    I'm interested to see if there has been any progress with the Lend, Borrow, Trust. I believe Roy was talking about doing some sort of peer-to-peer lending.

    I would also like to see if there is any progress with integrating Mene / Schiff Gold into the redemption process and if not, why?


  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    Coinbase made over a BILLION US dollars with crypto trading last year ( http://www.businessinsider.com/coinbase-reportedly-made-more-than-1-billion-in-revenues-last-year-2018-1 )... and now that the crypto hype has been deflating, there are multiple reports of traders (intelligently) switching to gold ( as per APMEX, KitCo and GoldSilver.com )... so, GoldMoney would have been the IDEAL place for that to have taken place. Thus, none of this thinking would fit with the collapse of the stock price, IMO.
  • theroostertherooster Posts: 10 Tin ✭
    I should think that crypto positions might have been hedged with paper, given the current availability in the paper bitcoin market.

    I don't like the idea of widening redemptions at all. The more incentive there is to keep the currency positions, the better, although an "out" must exist in the name of free markets.

    Debt-free P2P transaction are the key to adding support to the economy while systemic debt can be safely purged. Debt MUST be purged or we will eventually drown in it and the store shelves will go empty.

    Central banks cannot safely raise rates until such time that consumers enter gold into circulation, bottom-up, to create the support required for interest rates to rise safely. They are waiting for us !!! Free market capitalism is truly a full team event.

    The true utility value of gold is in its movement. Gold that sits idle in a static hoard and doesn't contribute to the real economy is like a sacred calf in the desert of economic depravity .... an abomination. It's the application for gold that matters. If a hammer is never swung, does it have any value other than acting as an ugly paper weight ?
  • Lone_StarrLone_Starr Posts: 72 Bronze ✭✭✭
    I have no doubt that Goldmoney made good money off of Bitcoin.

    Just because a stock price goes up or down doesn't mean a company is worth more or less. Too many emotions are tied to and make the stock price of a company. A good investor can find the true value of a company past the fog of the stock price.

    Its foolish to not want Schiff Gold and Mene (both entities tied to Goldmoney) to be integrated to the Goldmoney platform so clients can use all products and services in one place. Each service produces a profit. Schiff Gold and Mene is a one time higher profit margin, where Goldmoney produces a low margin consistent profit. Redemption options are important to building trust and give the Goldmoney accounts greater value.

    For example: A guy wants to buy a ring but doesn't have the money so he saves up for it in a bank or worse charges it to his credit card. The bank and the credit card are making money as well as Goldmoney. However if he could put money in his Goldmoney account and save up for the ring, Goldmoney will make money all the way from the beginning of the savings goal to the end goal.
  • FutureFuture Posts: 6 Tin ✭
    Maybe I am just tired but Real Time Audit shows me $1,471,263,852 as Customer Assets... shoudn't this number be much higher close to 2 billion?
  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    Thanks @GoldIsCurrency. It is great to read some positive words in the midst of this discouraging hour (for existing shareholders). I have great admiration for all the concept, innovation, presentation, implementation and intellectual depth of the team at Goldmoney and really hope all this becomes mainstream, as well as, seriously profitable. So many other lesser projects (some even idiotic) become so valuable in the eyes of the market, I see absolutely no reason why Goldmoney shouldnt get there and higher. Also hope, many of us can be 'here' enjoying it.

    In the meantime, I would REALLY appreciate if management finds a way to avoid fiascos like this one. It is all about confidence - and once confidence is lost it is VERY difficult to regain. Otherwise, all those fiat/paper currencies from the past would resurface to glory - but I am digressing. Management should find a way to better protect the asset they currently have: XAU. I am sure there are ways. Here, to better days ahead.
  • GoldIsCurrencyGoldIsCurrency Posts: 1,753 Gold ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 27
    Thanks @tamayok. There are plenty of positive developments on the near horizon for Goldmoney that shareholders can be excited for and we should try to focus our best on those positives.

    The current share price is somewhat demoralizing for shareholders holding long. All management can really do is apply for an NCIB in order to be able to take opportunity on a share price drop to buy back shares for cancellation. Goldmoney has plenty of money and throwing a few dollars to buy back some shares for cancellation ALWAYS has a positive response from the market. GM doesn't need to blow a lot of cash to turn it around. If they have the NCIB my suggestion would be to buy something like 50,000 shares a week for maybe a month. Report the buybacks on a weekly basis so the market can see what is happening on insider buying reports. Create market confidence. GM needs to show the market the shares are undervalued providing longs with confidence and that will also attract new investors. The only way to truly do that is let some dollars do the talking.
  • Lone_StarrLone_Starr Posts: 72 Bronze ✭✭✭
    It blows my mind that people freak out when their stock price goes down. If you did your homework and said hey this company is a good buy at $6. Then, removing the stock price, what's different in the company between then and now? I would think you'd be celebrating! Gold is on sale! I'm gonna get me some!!
  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    edited January 28
    @Lone_Starr, an occasional sale is to be celebrated/bought. But this has been extreme. Days and days of consecutive lower highs and lower lows bring down the stock to almost 50% is sending some signals. If I needed the money at the moment, my investment dwindled by half. A 15-20% is something I expect and will take advantage of. 50% decline? My conclusion is: something was definitively wrong either in my investment thesis, the Company dropped the ball or something sinister is going on. I am probably the biggest 'Gold and Goldmoney evangelist' anywhere in the Caribbean and yet, I am starting to second guess the stock. Hopefully, all this is just a temporary event... or we were all simply terribly fooled by these 'DEAL' investors if that is what is happening here ---- but please don't tell me with a straight-face that you didn't wish you had sold at $6+US and re-bought here at $3 USD.

    Another point is, if GOLD was not news these days or the general stock market was in considerable corrective mode, a small-cap having swings is ok. But none of this applies. This is the most formidable environment you can get: early in the year, bull market to the extreme, gold and the USD is all over the news; yet here we are tanking, not correcting but tanking miserably.

    Again, I hope everything works out in the end but, yes, I am shaken by this extreme decline of the stock price in a months' time.

    @GoldIsCurrency gets it: management can and should have had SOME plan for an eventuality like this. If they are careful in safeguarding our deposits, they should also safeguard their valuable asset: AUX. Otherwise this is just a roller-coaster ride suitable only for traders.

  • LGJLGJ Posts: 50 Copper ✭✭
    @tamayok I appreciate your insights.

    I'd bet a gram that the Goldmoney stock price surge in the second half of last year was a direct result of the market in general frantically investing into anything Bitcoin/crypto related.

    There are stories of companies simply adding Bitcoin to their name and seeing huge bumps in stock price over the same time period.

    Over the last 45 days the market has realized that crypto doesn't always go up up up. The same buyers that drove the price up are backing out now that they realize crypto is mortal.

    The 50% drop you described is not the abnormality. The massive surge was.
  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    Thanks @LGJ,

    You may be right.

    In retrospect, I think the 2 stock price spikes to $6+ US were 'bull traps' by some Hedge Fund short(s) to begin a 'short-against-the-box' attack as described by @GoldIsCurrency. They exploited the news momentum of the Company with @Goldmoney China and the Mene 'Spin-off'. While both are great events, perhaps shorts focused on the immediate costs of implementation of these. As much as I hate to see, they are appear perfectly precise in the timing: short the pop - against their position - further enticed by not having to pay 2017 yr taxes on that... then close the short once they can assess the flow of income from China (& Mene) outweighing the costs to the Company of implementation. If this theory is correct, the bastards will probably wait until late summer or spring to cover since the intended China rollout is possibly quite the undertaking - and - Gold interest is cyclical (although the spike in gold prices/activity has not been sufficient to mitigate the short attack). Good thing is being short usually entails paying interest.

    On the other hand, a lot more big-money should be circling around for Gold (and Goldmoney!) this year... Besides, the Company might surprise with some other initiative that brings in revenue quickly. As far as cryptos are concerned, I am bearish on them - the risks outweigh the benefits going forward.

    If Goldmoney China gets some decent media coverage in the coming weeks/months then all the bets are off since it should attract big inflows into the stock. That's what I am hoping for. Hopefully that takes place coinciding with another upward swing in Gold prices to further add interest.

  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    Good amount of short covering today right between 3.30 and 3.40 USD. I'd say the risk of adding here to your long positions is negligible even though the short(s) continue to show they are in complete control of this stock.
  • tamayoktamayok Posts: 16 Tin ✭
    FANTASTIC NUMBERS and ACHIEVEMENTS at GoldMoney based on report just released. Stock should move upwards significantly.
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