A long slide

RocketDogRocketDog Posts: 826 Silver ✭✭✭✭
I "cleverly" bought a bunch of gold after the price fell 40 cents to about $40.30/gram and was feeling very clever that I hit a small dip. Turns out there was lots of time to catch the decline. Oh well. I think I'll just keep buying while it's low.

I wonder if this is due to the Fed's threat to raise interest rates soon? Which might indicate a stronger dollar on the horizon (to the intellectually comatose). Or what? Any ideas?

Comments

  • GoldIsCurrencyGoldIsCurrency Posts: 1,820 Gold ✭✭✭✭✭
    @RocketDog This is related to the Fed's suggesting a rate increase. I think the drop in price is a little overdone but who knows with paper gold shorts. I hope they raise the rate to be honest with you. Might as well get if over with, I have a gut feeling not long after they raise the rates gold will start to climb back up in price anyways.

    The strange part of this. Gold miners seemed to really get hit hard before the price of gold pulled back. Usually it is the other way around. Lots of this appears orchestrated.

    In regards to silver the below was a great article to explain the price slam.

    https://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/market-updates/silver-hammered

    "When a seller of 20,000 Comex contracts drove the price sharply lower" " Annual silver supply from mines and recycling is about a billion ounces, and this sale represents ten per cent of it."
  • tomartotomarto Posts: 112 Copper ✭✭
    Fed is desperate to raise rates before the next recession (so they can cut them again)...[raise rates at a faster pace than inflation will help gold ]
    Growth is being financed with debt, which has now reached epic proportions.
    If gold can close decisively above $1,400 I would become even more bullish on gold.
    Fed heads anticipation of a March raise rates has boosted the dollar and depressed the gold price, which is typical of before-the-event behavior. After the raise rates hike, we can expect gold to rise sharply, as it usually does.
    Central banks want to hold gold but they don't want you to


    RESOURCES
    https://dailyreckoning.com/feds-getting-ready-raise-weakness/

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2017/03/01/gold-and-silver-opportunity-of-a-lifetime/#15ce876a205e

    https://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/na/17319
  • UvasUvas Posts: 680 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    A rate hike of .25 is basically factored in now. Most expect it at the March meeting of the Fed.
  • RocketDogRocketDog Posts: 826 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    @GoldIsCurrency @Tomarto @Uvas Thank you all for your input. I will check out the links.
    I too am happy that gold is going down now, because we do get an opportunity to get in before it rises. (If it ever does.) I know there has been a ton of meddling with the markets. It is interesting to finally learn some of the mechanisms of deception that have been used over the past 10 - 20 years.
    I have to believe in the value of gold because I do not believe in the value of anything else (other than skills and hard work). I just hope the sane people come out on top eventually.
  • GoldStandardCanadianGoldStandardCanadian Posts: 148 Bronze ✭✭✭
    The way I look at it, people need to do some "whale watching" - that is to say, watch how the bigshots are investing. They have ridiculous amounts of dollars & power and don't protect their gains primarily with paper investments. JP Morgan may be the greatest hoarder of silver. They have a lot more capital than we can imagine and clearly they've decided where to store their value. What does that say for the common person? I would imagine JPM will prosper in the next crash, and people will have a lot of animosity towards them / banks. In many ways, it will suck to be right.
  • AnacapAnacap Posts: 91 Copper ✭✭
    The fed can't increase rates neither too much or too long. That's where the fun comes in.
  • tomartotomarto Posts: 112 Copper ✭✭
    Jim Rickards writes.......

    I believe the Fed is preparing to raise into weakness and will have to reverse course in April or May. What happens to gold then? my long-term forecast is for $10,000 gold. So how do I arrive at $10,000?

    https://dailyreckoning.com/path-10000-gold/

    he also states
    If gold was irrelevant, why does the U.S. have 8,000 tons? Why does the IMF have 3,000 tons? Why does Germany have 3,000 tons? Why has Russia tripled its gold supply in the last 10 years? Why has China more than tripled its gold supply in the last 10 years?


    This is a good article and clears the fog around gold value and the FED actions ..
  • GMONEY1GMONEY1 Posts: 426 Silver ✭✭✭✭

    people need to do some "whale watching" - that is to say, watch how the bigshots are investing.

    @GoldStandardCanadian I see what you are trying to say here, but it needs to be understood that the bigshots like JPM have the power to work the system in their favor by using contracts and derivatives. A few basic examples:

    A. Collect premiums by selling call contracts that will expire worthless. (Or even any contracts with time-decay; e.g. selling calendar spreads).
    B. Sell massive amounts of future contracts (that knock down the price esp on low volume days). -- i.e. short and cover tactics.
    C. Buy Physical at a discount by selling the ETF at ~95% of the cost at the same time...in theory, capturing the 5% net benefit in the long-run.

    Then rinse and repeat...

    Think of A as "marginal revenue". B as a tactic to buy at marginally lower prices whenever you want or need to.
    And C as the long-term "LONG SLIDE or FADE" model/mechanism/strategy that sifts out the weak hands and leaves JPM with the silver hoard... and everybody else with worthless paper.

    What does that say for the common person?

    Normal people cannot do what I outlined above(certainly not B . ); but we can acquire silver (and PM's) knowing what their end game is (i.e. hoard what's valuable; sell the crap).

    So, for the common person, I'd say use common sense...think about what is happening in the financial/banking industry. Ostensibly "riskless" trades drive the industry; hold what's valuable for when the music stops.
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