Price Predictions

ChipperChipper Posts: 17 Tin ✭
I constantly read about price indicators. Some say gold will collapse to the $1,000 floor; saying the bull market is over. The fed raining interests rates depressing gold; and that gold will continue to decline, unless their is a catastrophic event. Then there are those who preach the coming collapse due to the 200 trillion dollar global debt and the bond markets unable to pay-off. But then, the economist say that the bods are written at low interest rates over a long extended time, and with the Fed's inflation targets depreciate the value of the bonds, it makes them payable over the future. Then, there are those who say that the markets are "rigged" by policies intended to shake out the "little guy's" wherewithal to psychologically hold out in the face of their holdings declining - it's difficult not to be tempted to sell, cut your losses and maybe invest in mining stocks; or gold ETF's. Given all this information - it sure is difficult for investors to to make any rational decision whether to hold on, or sell. For me, its not a matter rational analysis anymore - its like religious faith, or a loss of faith.

Comments

  • IrishGuyIrishGuy Posts: 174 Bronze ✭✭✭
    Hear you @Chipper
    A good podcast / website is kereport.com which discusses gold /gold stocks etc and the markets daily. They also discuss the technical charts for gold. They are pretty positive that 1260 is the low.
    Heard a good comment also that the FED cannot raise more than to 3% due to amount of US debt and therefore are closer to finishing raising rates that starting.
    I buy for the longer term - 10-20 years out and may sell when the collapse happens which I am positive will happen in that timeframe and more than likely by 2020.
    note gold stocks will drop a lot more than gold if gold does to to $1000
    Also Jim Rickards would say what does the world look like if gold drops to $1000 - probably a defalionary period and gold may still hold value compared with other asset classes.
    Good luck with whatever you decide.
  • RocketDogRocketDog Posts: 697 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    Also check out the YouTube videos of Lynette Zang. More arguments and graphs pointing toward collapse.
    I tend to think that the people who point toward collapse are correct --- but we cannot underestimate the amount of collusion, deception, and ignorance that keeps the markets running as they are. I expected a huge collapse 20 years ago with the dot.com bust, and I even joined the Army to guarantee I would still get fed. By the time I got out all my old friends and coworkers were living in new homes the could not previously afford and using those homes as ATMs to support themselves. Who knew? Who could predict that at that time? But we can predict it now. Because we've seen this cycle before within the last 20 years. What bubble is left to inflate this time? Who knows?
    Unfortunately, the ignorant faired better 20 years ago, than the "educated". Maybe we are living in a magic world where the ignorant/optimists always win, and us educated/pessimists will always miss out on the goods due to our "bad attitudes" and lack of trust in the system. Or maybe reality will catch up to the ignorant eventually ? ????????????????? (sigh)
  • TimKTimK Posts: 90 Bronze ✭✭✭
    I stopped reading and listening to all these so-called experts a long time ago. I like gold. It makes sense to me. I like silver it makes sense to me. I figure it will never go to zero. If you want to play the market or worry about the price then why buy P.M

    To me, it's a safety net. I stopped worrying about all this stuff a long time ago. All these people make their living preaching fear. Jim Rickards, good lord. All he cares about is getting you to buy his overpriced newsletter. Anybody can make a prediction or two and be right. Then these guys use it to buy credibility. All in the name of peddling the latest collapse and we the idiot public buy right into it.

    Stop listening to all these podcasts and looking at the price of gold every day or hour. Go live your life.
  • RocketDogRocketDog Posts: 697 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    Good advice @TimK. The podcasts and videos can make a person paranoid. I know that I have slept better since I started buying gold and don't have to keep watching the financial news. It is nice to hear from other people to who think the same way.
  • GoldmattersGoldmatters Posts: 3,944 Admin
    @RocketDog thats what the community is all about :)
  • ChipperChipper Posts: 17 Tin ✭
    Appreciate the folks that responded to my faith getting tested. It does seem to me that the underlying fundamentals of the global economy are on shaky ground. With all this trade war talk, and the stock market acting a bit shaky, I would have thought gold this week would have gained a bit of ground. Despite all this talk of "trade wars," and markets stagnating a bit, still gold dropped all week. I understand that governments are purchasing gold; and clearly the Chinese have included it as a supportive element of the Yuan. However, I wonder if an overly inflated gold price is detrimental in their need to devalue the currency, given they are an export economy. Moreover, sometimes I wonder in this competition to acquire gold by governments, that they would favor suppressing the price so as to make it easier to accumulate it. I have listened to economist that look at the history of coinage and do point out that monetary policy based strictly on metals, actually constrains options to "tweak" policies that encourage economic growth. Well, I study some economics in college, but it seems that all the "normal rules of markets" don't function: i.e. stocks down; % rates up; flattening bond yield curve gold should be moving up, but in the face of what was preached by the high priests of finance, is not occurring. Now, my faith, and my education are leading me to believe that the market is "rigged?" Oh well, what little we know, but suspect.
  • RocketDogRocketDog Posts: 697 Silver ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2018
    It was pointed out to me in this community, and further explained by Lynette Zang, that when the financial institutions buy gold and silver, they are buying "paper" gold and silver, as in ETFs. These ETFs do not back actual gold on a 1:1 basis, in fact, they are 10:1 or worse. So they are just buying paper, or indeed printing paper gold and silver, in that way they expand the "supply" (fake supply) of gold and therefore drop the price artificially. Oddly, the price of physical gold follows the price of paper (not the other way around which is what I intuitively thought would be happening).
    Supposedly, within this artificially low-priced gold market, the governments and other people "in the know" (like us) are indeed scooping up the actual physical metals at a bargain price. And we are thinking at some point, that paper market house of cards will come tumbling down and "surprise!" there is way less gold in the market and up goes the price of physical gold (like a Jack-in-the-box).
    I figure the effect of inflation alone will have to keep the price of gold up, (if we choose to disregard the alleged manipulation in the paper market).
    You could do what @TimK suggests and stop reading about it. Or do some more research into the paper ETF gold market and how that effects the physical price of gold. Maybe further understanding of that phenomenon will help your nerves.
    I feel like I am doing a lot of "taking other people's word for it", because I don't know where to access some of the original data, nor do I have the expertise to make sense of it. But the gold side goes with my gut, and I think the people backing GoldMoney are more honest than most. They may still be wrong about some things...and they cannot predict the future. So there is still a lot of uncertainty, even with the information we have.
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